MMSA Methanol Notes – 2020-01-07


China Methanol Apparent Demand – Double GDP Growth Returns with MTO Affordability



China’s 2019 methanol demand growth rates will be double China GDP growth, and growth itself is above 5 million metric tons for the calendar year. Growth is supported by record high net imports and driven by low pricing which has supported MTO operations. Traditional derivative demand has been impacted by the trade war including formaldehyde, acetic acid, and MTBE benefiting from healthy domestic demand. Given a continued functional relationship between methanol pricing and MTO operations, an acceleration in apparent demand will continue into 2020, to a large extent, depending on MTO affordability.