MMSA Methanol Notes are one-page summaries of items critical to the methanol and derivatives industries, issued Monday evenings Singapore time. Topics range broadly and include notices and brief overviews of ongoing MMSA updates to its supply and demand forecasts, price forecasts, methanol affordability analysis, MTO economics, and much more. Please browse a list of historic topics below.
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MMSA Methanol Notes – 2020-02-04
The rate of February US methanol price rises has outpaced that of recent US lumber pricing rises, yet the current methanol:lumber price ratio remains below average levels for the past 3 years. As such, methanol’s affordability into construction products remains high in the US. Yet, outlooks for lumber and methanol markets have been clouded by the Chinese coronavirus (methanol and lumber) and global fires (lumber).
US Methanol Prices vs Lumber – Methanol Ratios Low with Lumber Markets Uncertain
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2020-01-28
MTO competitiveness versus conventional naphtha crackers finally corrected after several months of improvement, although MTO operation rates are holding for now. Costs to make ethylene via MTO moved back towards naphtha-based ethylene costs. The situation is the result of methanol prices swiftly rising while naphtha remains flat. Still, propylene pricing remains above ethylene (advantaging higher propylene yielding MTO). As such, methanol prices look to be near a ceiling, with buyers remain focused on the return of distressed and lower cost Iranian cargoes. Cash flows moved for hypothetical MTO producers fell near zero, enabling operations for most MTO production but serving notice that buyers will not tolerate much higher methanol pricing given current MTO economic constrains.
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2020-01-21
The first quarter of 2020 came in with a “roar”: methanol demand growth, particularly into China’s massive and unique methanol to olefins sector, returned.
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2020-01-14
A large majority of Iranian methanol producers were reported as down as of January 11th, with no certain timetable for return. These facilities all report a diversion of natural gas by the national supplier to the housing sector amidst a cold wave.
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2020-01-07
China’s 2019 methanol demand growth rates will be double China GDP growth, and growth itself is above 5 million metric tons for the calendar year. Growth is supported by record high net imports and driven by low pricing which has supported MTO operations. Traditional derivative demand has been impacted by the trade war including formaldehyde, acetic acid, and MTBE benefiting from healthy domestic demand. Given a continued functional relationship between methanol pricing and MTO operations, an acceleration in apparent demand will continue into 2020, to a large extent, depending on MTO affordability.
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2019-12-03
MMSA will again host a forward-looking event in Frankfurt, Germany, accompanied by an active delegation of producers, consumers, traders, technology providers, academicians, and other industry associations at the 6th Methanol Technology and Policy Commercial Congress (MTPCC).