MMSA Methanol Notes are one-page summaries of items critical to the methanol and derivatives industries, issued Monday evenings Singapore time. Topics range broadly and include notices and brief overviews of ongoing MMSA updates to its supply and demand forecasts, price forecasts, methanol affordability analysis, MTO economics, and much more. Please browse a list of historic topics below.
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MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-03-01
When methanol prices are “MTO affordable,” the large MTO consuming sector of demand is engaged, tightening global markets and vice-versa. MTO economics have staged a tremendous turnaround in the past three months, with hypothetical non-integrated MTO cash margins shifting positive, sending operations to high rates….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-02-22
Lumber prices continue their 3rd rally since early 2020, while methanol pricing has settled back below 5-year average ratios versus lumber pricing. Lumber markets re-balanced yet again as lower prices helped increase lumber demand…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-02-15
A look at Chinese methanol producer cash margins shows how their winding path over the COVID era has influenced methanol operating rates in the country, explaining downturns, and offering some hope for improved supply in 2022. The analysis shows how marginal….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-02-08
Continued economic recovery in main sectors, including manufacturing (specifically wood panels) has driven apparent demand for Russian methanol notably higher in 2021, limiting much sought-after exports to Europe. Output from Russia’s….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-02-01
Although supply changed from imports to domestic production, Chinese methanol demand growth in 4Q 2021 looks to have kept at the positive yet deaccelerating pace expected. An early quarter price surge….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-01-25
Global MMSA supply and demand balances updates marking the final installment of 2021 Methanol and Derivative (MDA) were uploaded to client dashboards recently. Methanol demand has grown in 2021 yet less than originally forecast….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-01-18
Methanol spot prices were mixed across major global markets. EU spot was down in € yet nearly flat in USD terms. China/Asia spot values continued to slide on weak sentiment. US spot moved up on….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-01-11
The importance of methanol to olefins (MTO) demand to global methanol markets has been well chronicled by MMSA since 2005; indeed the growth of the sector of demand now regulates methanol prices in both directions globally. The emergence of integrated…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-01-04
United States (US) biodiesel consumption will rise for a third consecutive year, although data through November 2021 suggest that producers of fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) have been consuming less methanol. Notbaly, the share of FAME in the the US biodiesel market continues…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-12-28
As it has for the past 9 years, MMSA recaps annual top developments in the methanol industry. In 2021, despite being armed with, and having administered COVID-19 vaccines, the global plague raged on, impacting methanol markets. At the same time, the world’s drive to lower….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-12-21
MMSA estimates of US methanol apparent demand through 2021 show that US methanol markets have recovered strongly in the 4th quarter after a slow start to the year (February freeze followed by Hurricane Ida). US methanol production has expanded rapidly, enabling derivative consumption which is making up for lost time as the US macroeconomy slowly but steadily navigates a recovery from the depths of the COVID-19 crisis. With all USGC producers operating…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-12-14
MMSA continues its comprehensive techno-commercial analysis of pathways involving “low carbon methanol,” now titled Low Carbon Energy Transition: Methanol’s Role (see Methanol Notes™ August 31, 2021) As the world decreases its CO2 emissions from fossil-based energy in providing power to end users, and moves towards……
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-12-07
As thermal coal pricing in China retreats from record highs, marginal supply costs are also easing in that country, allowing the world’s methanol price floor to lower. Lower cost producers globally (i.e., Middle East, US Gulf Coast) continue to benefit from these higher costs at the margin of supply…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-11-30
When methanol prices are “MTO affordable,” the large MTO consuming sector of demand is engaged, tightening global markets and vice-versa. MTO economics have been suboptimal over the past three months, with hypothetical non-integrated MTO cash margins negative over that span, and with operations at …
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-11-23
Lumber prices have seen a third COVID-era rally, and methanol pricing has settled back below 5-year average ratios versus lumber pricing despite recent methanol price strength. Lumber markets re-balanced yet again as lower prices helped…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-11-16
Coal is very much in the news this week with the COP26 climaxing around pledges by China and India to “phase-down” coal. Both countries rely on coal for around 70 percent of their current energy supply. Other countries were looking for a phase-out rather than phase down commitment from China and India…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-11-09
A recovering economy, growing manufacturing sector and expansion of natural gas production is increasing demand for Russian methanol supply in 2021. Output from Russia’s nine methanol producers is trending slightly higher on aggregate (approximately 0.4 percent) vs 2020….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-11-02
Methanol demand growth in China continues to slow. Record high coal pricing, poor MTO affordability, and tepid traditional domestic demand factor in the deacceleration. As the world’s second largest economy continues to drive global demand growth….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-10-26
Global MMSA supply and demand balances have been fully updated and uploaded for 2021 Methanol and Derivative (MDA) client access. Methanol demand continues to grow in 2021 on support from recovering economies and traditional derivatives, albeit at a slower pace than envisioned three months ago due……
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-10-19
Methanol demand in Europe is on course to register a year of annual growth in 2021, building on the strong, post-COVID recovery seen during the latter half of 2020. MMSA tracks the production output for each of the regional methanol producers and combines this with regional imports to generate a value for total regional supply. Regional supply is a useful top-down proxy for estimating regional demand…
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-10-12:
Iran remains the second-largest holder of natural gas reserves in the world, after Russia. Most are stranded, non-associated gas reserves located offshore to the south west of the country. South Pars is the largest field, part of a large structure that is shared with Qatar……
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-10-05
United States (US) biodiesel consumption growth in 2021 continues lose ground while non-ester renewable diesel carves out market share, using EPA data through the first eight months of 2021. The share of fatty-acid methyl esters (FAME) in the the US biodiesel market continues to…
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-09-28
Global methanol prices continue to rise, with higher cost to produce at the margin as well as poor availability of production driving the surge. High coal pricing in China, an unsteady recovery of methanol capacity outside China, a steady recovery in global economies, and a….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-09-21
MMSA estimates of US methanol apparent demand through November 2021 show flagging US methanol markets due to yet another weather event in the producer and consumer rich USGC area. A February freeze there was followed by Hurricane Ida in late August; each event dismantled US methanol production……
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-09-14
The European Quarterly Contract Price (EU CP), which is referred by MMSA as well as other price reporting agencies, is used as price reference for most of the methanol bought and sold under contract terms across Europe. The price finding process is not regulated…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-09-07
Continued high thermal coal pricing in China has maintained marginal supply costs at elevated levels in that country, keeping the world’s methanol price floor high. Lower cost producers globally continue to benefit from the higher costs at the margin, even as their feedstock costs (natural gas) also rise. With methanol prices…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-08-31
MMSA has embarked on a comprehensive techno-commercial analysis of the commercial low carbon hydrogen space titled Low Carbon Energy Transition: Hydrogen Pathways and Impact to Methanol. As the world decreases its CO2 emissions from fossil-based energy in providing power to end users, and moves towards renewable-based energy (i.e., solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, nuclear, and others)…….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-08-24
A massive correction in lumber prices has moved methanol pricing above 5-year average ratios versus lumber pricing. As a result, methanol and methanol derivatives are no longer an easy “pass through” cost in wood panel applications (including MDF, OSB, and plywood). In other words, methanol’s affordability….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-08-17
MTO affordability remains a major influence on global methanol markets. When methanol prices are “affordable,” the large MTO consuming sector of demand is engaged, and markets tend to tighten globally. The opposite has been noticed, as well. MTO economics have been suboptimal over the past year, with hypothetical non-integrated MTO cash margins barely positive over that span, and yet with operations at a relatively high rate. In the past three months….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-08-10
A recovering economy, growing manufacturing sector and expansion of natural gas production is increasing demand for Russian methanol supply in 2021. Output from Russia’s nine methanol producers is trending slightly lower on aggregate (approximately 2 percent) than 2020 on an annualised basis. The biggest impact….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-08-03
The August 2021 MMSA China Non-Discounted Reference Price (MCNDR) is USD XXX.X pmt, an increase of USD X.X pmt vs July. MCNDR is based on a cost-plus margin methodology which also factors liquidity, “psychological,” and other applicable market conditions. MCNDR assumes a 15 percent hypothetical discount (actual discounts negotiated will vary)…
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-07-27
Global methanol spot prices were mostly up across major global markets. China spot rose a 2nd straight week with low inventories factoring. EU spot figures ticked up with short term supply issues continuing to embolden sellers. US spot…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-07-20
Global MMSA supply and demand balances have been fully updated and uploaded for 2021 Methanol and Derivative (MDA) client access. Methanol demand continues to grow in 2021 on support from recovering economies and traditional derivatives….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-07-13
Methanol demand growth in China has begun to slow as the first half of 2021 ends. High coal pricing, marginal MTO affordability, and tepid traditional domestic demand are all factoring in the deacceleration. Yet it still appears THAT another annual methanol demand record…
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-07-06
United States (US) biodiesel consumption growth in 2021 continues to appear negative, while non-ester renewable diesel continues to carve out market share, using EPA data through May 2021. The share of fatty-acid methyl esters (FAME) in the the US biodiesel market continues…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-06-29
Global methanol prices remain elevated a few months longer than expected three months back. High coal pricing in China, an unsteady recovery of methanol capacity outside China, an uneven yet steady post-pandemic recovery in global economies, and a delayed start up…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-06-22
MMSA estimates of US methanol apparent demand through August 2021 show recovering US methanol markets that are poised for growth in the back half of the year. A February freeze in the USGC dismantled almost 65 percent of US methanol production, with…
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-06-15
The European Quarterly Contract Price (EU CP) index is used for most methanol bought and sold under contract across Europe. It is typically settled near the end of each quarter, applying to the subsequent quarter. Contractual discounts are applied to the index to determine a net transaction price.
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-06-08
A sharp and definitive rise in methanol coal prices in China has shifted the theoretical marginal supply cost higher in that country, lifting the price floor. This has improved margins for lower cost producers globally. With methanol prices below levels of affordability into important consuming sectors of demand…
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-06-01
Next week (June 10th), MMSA will hold its Low Carbon Methanol Forum virtually, sponsored by Solvadis and the Methanol Institute. Two MMSA presentations on the topic will be followed by senior executive panels; one for low carbon methanol consumers, and the other for low carbon methanol producers….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-05-25
US lumber prices continue to reach new highs as supply limitations in a red-hot construction market persist, keeping methanol and methanol derivatives an easy “pass through” cost in wood panel applications (including MDF, OSB, and plywood)…
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-05-18
MTO affordability remains a major influence on the health of global methanol markets. When methanol prices are “affordable,” the large MTO consuming sector of demand is engaged, and markets tend to tighten globally. The opposite has been noticed, as well. While MTO economics were suboptimal over the past three months……
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-05-11
Russian macroeconomic recovery in early 2021 appears to have helped Russian methanol demand. A modest increase in production versus the year prior appears to have issued, while methanol exports appear to have slowed. Russian methanol apparent demand will continue to recover based on…
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-04-27
Higher cost methanol production remains engaged in China, requiring higher pricing to cover marginal costs of supply. Accordingly, margins for lower cost producers globally have benefitted, in the case they are able to operate. Methanol prices are approaching levels of affordability into important consuming sectors of demand…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-04-20
Methanol supply in the Atlantic Basin (AB) has been on a wild ride for the past decade, first with the renaissance of USGC methanol production, and followed by increasing variability of natural gas supply in Trinidad, a major AB supply hub. Currently, four major methanol facilities in Trinidad are idled..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-04-13
Methanol demand growth in China has started 2021 at a swift pace after a healthy 2020. At the current pace, another annual methanol demand record in the world’s second largest economy will emerge. Strong post-COVID demand and improved exports are factoring in the impressive results so far…
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-04-06
After showing some hope in 2020, United States (US) biodiesel consumption has begun this calendar year at a relatively slow pace. Data through February 2021 suggest that producers of fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) have been consuming methanol at a modest rate. Furthermore, the share of FAME in the the US biodiesel market continues to shrink….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-03-30
Global methanol prices are steady and rising in the Atlantic Basin while remaining relatively flat in China. Global operating rates remain low while developed economies emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic, slowly. Tight supply in major markets has emerged as expected, although supply recovery and pressure from olefins affordability threaten to mitigate upwards movement.
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-03-23
Global MMSA supply and demand balances have been fully updated and uploaded for 2021 Methanol and Derivative (MDA) client access. Methanol demand, which showed it was “pandemic proof” in 2020, will grow again in 2021 on support from recovering economies and traditional derivatives.
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-03-16
MMSA estimates of US methanol apparent demand through April 2021 show the devastating impact of the Texas freeze on US methanol markets. After a very stable January and 1H February, the loss of nearly 65 percent of all US methanol consumption, and over 90 percent of US methanol production over a 2 to 3 week period translates to a double-digit YOY (annualized) shrinkage in US apparent methanol demand.
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-03-09
The European Quarterly Contract Price (EU CP) index is used for most methanol bought and sold under contract across Europe. It is typically settled near the end of each quarter, applying to the subsequent quarter. This iterative and sometims complex process involves agreements between large European producers and consumers. Contractual discounts are applied to the index to determine net transaction price.
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-03-02
Since October 2019, MMSA has posted a one-month forward price forecast and contract price index for China to help clients to value methanol on a near-term, forward-looking basis. Most methanol sold in China today is transacted either using daily (RMB pmt) or weekly (USD pmt) spot price references.