MMSA Methanol Notes are one-page summaries of items critical to the methanol and derivatives industries, issued Monday evenings Singapore time. Topics range broadly and include notices and brief overviews of ongoing MMSA updates to its supply and demand forecasts, price forecasts, methanol affordability analysis, MTO economics, and much more. Please browse a list of historic topics below.
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52-week Methanol Notes Index
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MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-09-06
As thermal coal pricing in China keeps at record highs, marginal supply costs remain elevated, keeping the world’s methanol price floor near all-time highs……..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-08-30
When methanol prices are “MTO affordable,” the large MTO consuming sector of demand is typically active, tightening global markets. As MTO……
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-08-23
US lumber prices are maintaining a noteworthy descent at a pace quicker than methanol pricing falls. 5-year average……
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-08-16
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has affected methanol and derivatives markets on many fronts. This note focuses on the impact to key feedstocks for methanol; namely……..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-08-09
Southeast Asia biodiesel production and consumption continues to rise, driven by non-ester forms of fuel in this category. Data through May 2022 show that production…………
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-08-02
Moving into the third quarter of 2022, Chinese methanol demand has a better chance at growth over the calendar year than it just three months ago, thanks to continued growth in the MTO sector and despite….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-07-26
MMSA has completed a significant technical milestone in the creation of generic in-house material balances for significant methanol, hydrogen, and ammonia processes. The balances are supported by flow diagrams…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-07-19
MMSA supply and demand balance updates for the 2022 Methanol and Derivative (MDA) service are now uploaded to client dashboards. In the past three months, 2022 global demand growth estimates have been assessed…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-07-12
MMSA supply and demand balance updates for the 2022 Methanol and Derivative (MDA) service are now uploaded to client dashboards. In the past three months, 2022 global demand growth estimates have been assessed…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-07-05
United States (US) D4 RIN consumption continues to rise, driven by non-ester forms of fuel in this category. Data through May 2022 show that production of fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) based biodiesel cotinues to fall, and the share of FAME based….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-06-28
US methanol apparent demand for 2022 continues to underwhelm, with a slew of 2Q derivative outages contributing to a slowdown in annualized rates of consumption. MMSA estimates of net trade and production through September 2022, suggest that overall demand…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-06-21
MMSA estimates of European apparent methanol demand through April 2022 indicates healthy market conditions at the beginning of the year couple with a significant increase in imported supply. Apparent demand (a combination of in-region production plus imports) was…….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-05-31
When methanol prices are “MTO affordable,” the large MTO consuming sector of demand is typically active, tightening global markets. Yet while MTO economics have remained supportive in the past three months, with hypothetical non-integrated MTO cash margins positive, Chinese operations have not…….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-05-24
US lumber prices corrected severely in May, while methanol pricing has been relatively flat in comparison, moving back near 5-year average ratios versus lumber pricing. Lumber markets corrected as the US begain to raise its Federal lending rates……
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-05-17
Before Russia launched a war in Ukraine, things were looking up for the Russian methanol industry. Steady apparent demand growth, increased production, and rising net exports were all hallmarks of their industry. Unfortunately, the war…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-05-10
Methanol spot prices were mixed across regions. China and SEA rose marginally amid feared coal feedstock restrictions and SEA turnarounds. US and EU spot fell on thin spot demand. Preliminary May ‘22 NEA/SEA MNTR is at……
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-05-03
For the first time in over 20 years, while there is plenty of time left for things to change, Chinese methanol demand is on track to shrink over a calendar year. Although methanol remains affordable in the key olefins sector, overall apparent demand has been crushed by a lockdown policy which has impacted production and trade…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-04-26
Today in Singapore, restrictions related to the spread of COVID-19 are being relaxed. Offices are opening back up to full occupancy, and the wheels of commerce in the Lion City should be fully greased soon. The country is a significant consumer or methanol…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-04-19
Profitability for a hypothetical Middle Eastern MTBE producer has returned to historically high levels on the back of a rise in refined product spreads and mostly excellent blending economics. Supply of the ether has been somewhat limited in relation to demand, especially in……
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-04-12
Global MMSA supply and demand balance updates marking the first installment of 2022 Methanol and Derivative (MDA) service are now uploaded to client dashboards. Results of methanol demand assessment for 2021……
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-04-05
United States (US) biodiesel consumption continues to rise, driven by non-ester forms of the renewable fuel. Data through February 2022 show that that producers of fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) based biodiesel conitinue to consume less methanol. Additionally, the share…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-03-29
Methanol can simultaneously help achieve joint goals of global decarbonization and petrochemical demand growth. MMSA has completed a study (click for table of contents) which assesses methanol’s role in the transition of energy into a lower carbon source future, including a view on the markets for low carbon methanol long term. MMSA also offers a service which includes workshops (click for description) on the topic.
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-03-22
Annualized US methanol apparent demand for 2022 was crimped by a record January drop in US methanol exports (annualized pace of 5.04M mtpa of methanol exports). Nevertheless, factoring MMSA estimates of net trade and production through May 2022, modest growth….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-03-15
MMSA is concluding its comprehensive techno-commercial analysis of pathways involving “low carbon methanol,” now titled Low Carbon Energy Transition: Methanol’s Role (see Methanol Notes™ August 31, 2021, December 14, 2021) As the world decreases its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil-based energy in providing power to end users,…
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-03-08
As thermal coal pricing in China keeps at record highs, marginal supply costs are supported in that country, keeping the world’s methanol price floor elevated. Lower cost producers globally (i.e., Middle East, US Gulf Coast) continue to benefit from these higher costs….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-03-01
When methanol prices are “MTO affordable,” the large MTO consuming sector of demand is engaged, tightening global markets and vice-versa. MTO economics have staged a tremendous turnaround in the past three months, with hypothetical non-integrated MTO cash margins shifting positive, sending operations to high rates….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-02-22
Lumber prices continue their 3rd rally since early 2020, while methanol pricing has settled back below 5-year average ratios versus lumber pricing. Lumber markets re-balanced yet again as lower prices helped increase lumber demand…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-02-15
A look at Chinese methanol producer cash margins shows how their winding path over the COVID era has influenced methanol operating rates in the country, explaining downturns, and offering some hope for improved supply in 2022. The analysis shows how marginal….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-02-08
Continued economic recovery in main sectors, including manufacturing (specifically wood panels) has driven apparent demand for Russian methanol notably higher in 2021, limiting much sought-after exports to Europe. Output from Russia’s….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-02-01
Although supply changed from imports to domestic production, Chinese methanol demand growth in 4Q 2021 looks to have kept at the positive yet deaccelerating pace expected. An early quarter price surge….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-01-25
Global MMSA supply and demand balances updates marking the final installment of 2021 Methanol and Derivative (MDA) were uploaded to client dashboards recently. Methanol demand has grown in 2021 yet less than originally forecast….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-01-18
Methanol spot prices were mixed across major global markets. EU spot was down in € yet nearly flat in USD terms. China/Asia spot values continued to slide on weak sentiment. US spot moved up on….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-01-11
The importance of methanol to olefins (MTO) demand to global methanol markets has been well chronicled by MMSA since 2005; indeed the growth of the sector of demand now regulates methanol prices in both directions globally. The emergence of integrated…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2022-01-04
United States (US) biodiesel consumption will rise for a third consecutive year, although data through November 2021 suggest that producers of fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) have been consuming less methanol. Notbaly, the share of FAME in the the US biodiesel market continues…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-12-28
As it has for the past 9 years, MMSA recaps annual top developments in the methanol industry. In 2021, despite being armed with, and having administered COVID-19 vaccines, the global plague raged on, impacting methanol markets. At the same time, the world’s drive to lower….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-12-21
MMSA estimates of US methanol apparent demand through 2021 show that US methanol markets have recovered strongly in the 4th quarter after a slow start to the year (February freeze followed by Hurricane Ida). US methanol production has expanded rapidly, enabling derivative consumption which is making up for lost time as the US macroeconomy slowly but steadily navigates a recovery from the depths of the COVID-19 crisis. With all USGC producers operating…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-12-14
MMSA continues its comprehensive techno-commercial analysis of pathways involving “low carbon methanol,” now titled Low Carbon Energy Transition: Methanol’s Role (see Methanol Notes™ August 31, 2021) As the world decreases its CO2 emissions from fossil-based energy in providing power to end users, and moves towards……
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-12-07
As thermal coal pricing in China retreats from record highs, marginal supply costs are also easing in that country, allowing the world’s methanol price floor to lower. Lower cost producers globally (i.e., Middle East, US Gulf Coast) continue to benefit from these higher costs at the margin of supply…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-11-30
When methanol prices are “MTO affordable,” the large MTO consuming sector of demand is engaged, tightening global markets and vice-versa. MTO economics have been suboptimal over the past three months, with hypothetical non-integrated MTO cash margins negative over that span, and with operations at …
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-11-23
Lumber prices have seen a third COVID-era rally, and methanol pricing has settled back below 5-year average ratios versus lumber pricing despite recent methanol price strength. Lumber markets re-balanced yet again as lower prices helped…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-11-16
Coal is very much in the news this week with the COP26 climaxing around pledges by China and India to “phase-down” coal. Both countries rely on coal for around 70 percent of their current energy supply. Other countries were looking for a phase-out rather than phase down commitment from China and India…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-11-09
A recovering economy, growing manufacturing sector and expansion of natural gas production is increasing demand for Russian methanol supply in 2021. Output from Russia’s nine methanol producers is trending slightly higher on aggregate (approximately 0.4 percent) vs 2020….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-11-02
Methanol demand growth in China continues to slow. Record high coal pricing, poor MTO affordability, and tepid traditional domestic demand factor in the deacceleration. As the world’s second largest economy continues to drive global demand growth….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-10-26
Global MMSA supply and demand balances have been fully updated and uploaded for 2021 Methanol and Derivative (MDA) client access. Methanol demand continues to grow in 2021 on support from recovering economies and traditional derivatives, albeit at a slower pace than envisioned three months ago due……
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-10-19
Methanol demand in Europe is on course to register a year of annual growth in 2021, building on the strong, post-COVID recovery seen during the latter half of 2020. MMSA tracks the production output for each of the regional methanol producers and combines this with regional imports to generate a value for total regional supply. Regional supply is a useful top-down proxy for estimating regional demand…
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-10-12:
Iran remains the second-largest holder of natural gas reserves in the world, after Russia. Most are stranded, non-associated gas reserves located offshore to the south west of the country. South Pars is the largest field, part of a large structure that is shared with Qatar……
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-10-05
United States (US) biodiesel consumption growth in 2021 continues lose ground while non-ester renewable diesel carves out market share, using EPA data through the first eight months of 2021. The share of fatty-acid methyl esters (FAME) in the the US biodiesel market continues to…
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-09-28
Global methanol prices continue to rise, with higher cost to produce at the margin as well as poor availability of production driving the surge. High coal pricing in China, an unsteady recovery of methanol capacity outside China, a steady recovery in global economies, and a….
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-09-21
MMSA estimates of US methanol apparent demand through November 2021 show flagging US methanol markets due to yet another weather event in the producer and consumer rich USGC area. A February freeze there was followed by Hurricane Ida in late August; each event dismantled US methanol production……
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-09-14
The European Quarterly Contract Price (EU CP), which is referred by MMSA as well as other price reporting agencies, is used as price reference for most of the methanol bought and sold under contract terms across Europe. The price finding process is not regulated…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-09-07
Continued high thermal coal pricing in China has maintained marginal supply costs at elevated levels in that country, keeping the world’s methanol price floor high. Lower cost producers globally continue to benefit from the higher costs at the margin, even as their feedstock costs (natural gas) also rise. With methanol prices…..
MMSA Methanol Notes – 2021-08-31
MMSA has embarked on a comprehensive techno-commercial analysis of the commercial low carbon hydrogen space titled Low Carbon Energy Transition: Hydrogen Pathways and Impact to Methanol. As the world decreases its CO2 emissions from fossil-based energy in providing power to end users, and moves towards renewable-based energy (i.e., solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, nuclear, and others)…….